Research

Research Projects

Working Papers

• State and Time-Dependent Pricing
  Philip Bunn, Nicholas Bloom, Craig Menzies, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, Ivan Yotzov
  NBER Working Paper 34666 — January 2026
  NBER Abstract
  We combine microdata on CPI prices with firm-level survey data from the Decision Maker Panel to study state- and time-dependent pricing behaviour among UK firms.
• The Economic Impact of Brexit
  Nick Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites
  NBER Working Paper 34459 — November 2025
  NBER Abstract
  We use the Decision Maker Panel to estimate the long-run impact of Brexit on UK firms, finding substantial effects on investment, trade and productivity.
• How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?
  Philip Bunn, Lena Anayi, Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, Ivan Yotzov
  NBER Working Paper 33234 — December 2024
  NBER Abstract
  We use firm-level data from the Decision Maker Panel to examine the non-linearity of the Phillips Curve relationship between slack and inflation.
• Towards a New Monetary Theory of Exchange Rate Determination
  Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Michael Kumhof, Marco Pinchetti, Andrej Sokol, Gregory Thwaites
  April 2024
  PDF Abstract
  We develop a new monetary theory of exchange rates that can account for the empirical failures of standard models.
• Covid-19 Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
  Philip Bunn, David Altig, Lena Anayi, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites
  Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper 2021-135 — November 2021
  Non-technical summary VoxEU Abstract
  We use real-time survey data to measure the extreme uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic among UK and US firms.
• The Balance of Power: Monopsony, Unions and Wages in the United Kingdom
  Will Abel, Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites
  CFM Working Paper 2018-27
  PDF VoxEU Abstract
  We study monopsonistic wage-setting in the UK labour market and the role of unions in offsetting employer market power.

Published Articles

• The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation
  Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, Ivan Yotzov
  Journal of the European Economic Association — October 2025
  Ungated PDF Abstract
  We use the Decision Maker Panel to measure how quickly UK firms adjust their prices, wages and employment in response to the post-pandemic inflation shock.
• Firm Inflation Uncertainty
  Lena Anayi, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, Ozgen Ozturk, Ivan Yotzov
  AEA Papers and Proceedings — 2023
  Abstract
  We document the evolution of firm-level inflation uncertainty using the Decision Maker Panel, showing how it rose sharply during the post-pandemic period.
• The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity
  Nick Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites
  Review of Economics and Statistics — 2023
  NBER version VoxEU Abstract
  We use firm-level data to estimate the effects of the pandemic on UK firm productivity, finding substantial reallocation effects and within-firm productivity changes.
• Population Aging and the Macroeconomy
  Noëmie Lisack, Rana Sajedi, Gregory Thwaites
  International Journal of Central Banking — 2021
  Abstract
  We study how population ageing affects the macroeconomy, showing that demographic trends can account for a significant part of the decline in real interest rates observed in advanced economies.
• Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient
  Barry Eichengreen, Rebecca Mari, Gregory Thwaites
  Economica — August 2021
  NBER version VoxEU Abstract
  We study whether the age gradient in support for Brexit reflects cohort or ageing effects, with implications for the future of UK-EU relations.
• Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
  David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent H. Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas B. Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites
  Journal of Public Economics — August 2020
  NBER version Abstract
  We use multiple indicators to track the extraordinary rise in economic uncertainty during the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom
  Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Gregory Thwaites, Alejandro Vicondoa
  European Economic Review, Vol. 123 — April 2020
  BoE version Abstract
  We construct a new dataset of UK monetary policy shocks and study how they transmit through the open economy.
• Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises
  Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin, Gregory Thwaites
  Journal of Financial Intermediation — 2019
  Bank Underground Abstract
  We show that foreign credit booms are a powerful predictor of domestic banking crises, highlighting the global dimension of financial instability.
• The Banks That Said No: Banking Relationships, Credit Supply and Productivity in the United Kingdom
  Jeremy Franklin, May Rostom, Gregory Thwaites
  Journal of Financial Services Research — 2019
  BoE version Bank Underground Abstract
  We use matched bank-firm data to study how the contraction in credit supply after the financial crisis affected UK firm productivity.
• Step Away from the Zero Lower Bound: Small Open Economies in a World of Secular Stagnation
  Giancarlo Corsetti, Eleonora Mavroeidi, Gregory Thwaites
  Journal of International Economics — 2018
  Abstract
  We study the options available to small open economies when the global natural rate of interest is persistently negative.
• Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions
  Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics — 2016
  Abstract
  We show that the effects of US monetary policy on output and inflation are less powerful during recessions than during expansions, with implications for countercyclical policy.
• Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low? The Role of the Relative Price of Investment Goods
  Rana Sajedi, Gregory Thwaites
  IMF Economic Review — 2016
  Abstract
  We argue that the long-run decline in the relative price of investment goods can account for a substantial part of the fall in real interest rates observed across advanced economies.